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Indiana vs Michigan State Odds

Indiana started the year 3-0 but quickly fell back on their feet as they got down to the heart of their schedule. The Hoosiers are now at 3-7 and have no chance of going to .500 for the second year in a row.

Michigan State needs a win over the next two weekends to qualify for the Bowl. With a trip to Penn State scheduled for next weekend, the Spartans are looking to get this Saturday out of the way.

Indiana has been terrible all round this year, but there could be a chance they could score against Michigan State’s secondary, while the Spartans will likely have a successful day offensively as well.

Hoosiers offense

Indiana started this year off with a great record, but that was a bit misleading as to what they actually were.

The Hoosiers’ defense may take most of the blame, but the offense is also struggling. They rank 119th in offensive success rate, 101st in points per opportunity, and 96th in explosiveness. SP+ ranks this as the 66th best offense in the country, but only 128th in PFF grades.

The Hoosiers have the fifth highest rate in the country but are only 111th in success rate and 122nd in PPA.

Transfer Connor Bazelak arrived for a fresh start in Indiana, but things didn’t quite go as planned. He averages -0.10 EPA per dropback and nine interceptions a year. Out of 88 quarterbacks this year who have played in 50% of their team’s passing snaps this year, Bazelak ranks last in the PFF passing class.

When the Hoosiers run the ball, they haven’t had much success. They’re ranked 113th in win rate this season, but have managed to break a big one from time to time. Indiana is ranked 56th in Rushing Explosivity and 91st in Rushing PPA this season.

Hoosiers Defense

To put it lightly, defense was not Indiana’s forte this year. It ranks 95th in defense success rate, 115th in PFF grades, and 112th in SP+.

Most of the Hoosiers’ problems have passed through the air. Indiana has seen its 23rd highest rate of passing games this year and has been slammed. The Hoosiers rank 128th in passing success rate against and 125th in passing PPA. Their coverage rate of 50.7 PFF ranks 126th in the country.

They haven’t had to face too many heavy rushing attacks this season, but Indiana has been good when they have. They rank 34th in rushing success rate, 16th in PPA, and 23rd in allowed rushing explosiveness.

Spartan’s offensive

This year the Spartans’ offense was pretty average. They rank 70th in success rate and 49th in SP+. They are mid-table in both passing and rushing success rates, ranking 64th and 80th, respectively.

There’s nothing terribly exciting about this offense other than the fact that they have to face Indiana’s defense.

MSU needs to lean into their passing game to field this Indiana defense in large numbers as they were able to successfully stop the run for the most part. The Spartans fold at the 28th highest odds in the country, so there’s a good chance they’ll capitalize on that advantage.

Spartan Defense

Michigan State’s defenses have not been entirely up to par over the years.

It ranks 57th in SP+ and 106th in overall success rate. The Spartans are 51st in points per opportunity but were aided by the sixth-best average grid position.

Indiana has a pass-heavy offense that is largely ineffective. This can hold up decently against a Michigan State pass defense that ranks among the worst in the country. The Spartans rank 121st in Passing Success Rate and 123rd in Passing PPA.

They have been better against the run this season as they rank 67th in the success rate and 42nd in the PPA at the venue. Indiana’s rushed offense likely won’t pose much of a threat to Michigan State as it ranks 36th in rushed explosiveness, depriving Indiana of the only potential advantage.

Indiana vs Michigan State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Indiana and Michigan State statistically match:

Indiana Offense vs. Michigan State Defense

Michigan State Offense vs. Indiana Defense

Game pace / Miscellaneous
PFF tackle 113 63
PFF cover 126 117
SP+ special teams 43 104
seconds per game 19.9 (1) 24.6 (29)
rush rate 41.6% (126) 46.9% (108)
Data from (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Indiana vs Michigan State Betting Tip

Michigan State’s offensive in this case should succeed against a terrible Indiana defense. On the other hand, I don’t have too much faith in Indiana, but they might be able to hold up a bit against Michigan State’s high school.

The forecast for this weekend is possible snow but unless there is a strong wind I don’t know it will affect this game too much.

I think that total is probably too low as no defense has excelled this season.

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