Purdue vs Indiana Odds
The fight for the Old Oaken Bucket could have a little more meaning this weekend if Nebraska somehow upsets Iowa. When that happens, all Purdue has to do is beat Indiana and it’s Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship.
Purdue is 7-4 after an upset win at Champaign two weeks ago and a dominant performance over Northwestern last weekend.
However, the Boilermaker offense wasn’t what it was last season. The good news for them is that they will no doubt find a way to counter a poor Indiana defense.
Indiana ended its seven-game losing streak last weekend, beating Michigan State 39-31 in double overtime. The Hoosiers are now 4-7 with no hope of a bowl game.
However, if they beat their state rival, their seniors would get a high grade.
Aidan O’Connell has been very inconsistent this season, averaging just 6.7 yards per attempt this season to match a 69.7 PFF inventory score. He’s also recorded 18 big throws compared to 23 turnover-worthy plays.
The good news for him is that he’s up against one of the worst secondaries in college football.
O’Connell has no excuse for his poor play because the offensive line did a good job of protecting him. He was only under pressure on 24.7% of his dropbacks, and Purdue is seventh in Havoc Allowed. Indiana has the second-worst pass rushing score in the country, so he should have plenty of time to throw again.
Purdue has had some success locally. Running back Devin Mockobee is averaging 5.0 yards per carry and 21 carries for 10 yards. He’s the main reason Purdue ranks 34th in the Rushing Success Rate.
Purdue’s defense has been incredibly solid this season, ranking 20th in allowable success rate and 19th in EPA/Play Allowed.
While the Boilermakers have been good from a win rate standpoint, they don’t do a good job of keeping teams out of the end zone when crossing the 40-yard line. Purdue ranks 96th in Defensive Finishing Drives, giving up 26.1 points per game.
The front seven was the defense’s strength, especially against the run. Purdue ranks 20th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, 30th in Rushing Explosivity Allowed, and 15th in EPA/Rush Allowed. So it will be very difficult for Indiana’s fast attack to consistently run the ball against the Boilermakers.
Second place is a whole different story.
Purdue has been repeatedly flared this season and has a major problem giving up big games through the air. The Boilermakers allow 7.8 yards per attempt (99th in FBS) while ranking 105th in allowed explosiveness and 100th in PFF coverage class.
The Indiana offense has been pretty poor this season, ranking 120th in success rate and 121st in EPA/Play.
However, the offense came alive in East Lansing last Saturday when Indiana scored 39 points despite playing just 51 offensive games.
Indiana got run heavy against the Spartans as Dexter Williams only attempted seven passes. It has to be that way again against Purdue because Williams is not a good passer.
However, he’s a fantastic runner, which really helps open up gaps in the reading option for Shaun Shivers.
Shivers has struggled this season, but adding Williams as quarterback seems to have helped. Last week he rushed for 113 yards for 15 carries, which was easily his best game of the season. Despite all the struggles he’s had, Indiana still sits 24th in noise explosiveness.
Indiana’s defense has been pretty poor this season, allowing 5.8 yards per game and ranking 85th in allowed success rate and 80th in allowed finishing drives.
The front seven was actually very good against the run, but last weekend Michigan State rushed against it for 242 yards and 5.0 yards per carry. But on the season, it still ranks 25th in the allowable Rushing Success Rate and 14th in the EPA/Rush Allowed.
Indiana’s defense problems emerged in secondary school. The Hoosiers allow 7.8 yards per attempt (108th in FBS) while ranking 128 in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 125 in Coverage Grade, so O’Connell should be able to complete that secondary throw.
Purdue vs Indiana Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Purdue and Indiana match statistically:
Purdue Offense vs. Indiana Defense
Indiana Offense vs. Purdue Defense
Game pace / Miscellaneous
|SP+ special teams||125||58|
|seconds per game||25.9 (51)||20.4 (1)|
|rush rate||44.4% (119)||44.4% (118)|
Data from CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Purdue vs Indiana Betting Tip
The Hoosiers play at an ultra-fast pace. Tom Allen’s team completes a game every 18.3 seconds, the fastest in the nation. It often goes three and out in record time, giving the opposing offense ample opportunity to score with their lackluster defense.
Purdue is also playing at an above-average pace, which should result in a higher-than-expected scoring game.
I projected a 62.3 score for this Old Oaken Bucket game, so I love the score of over 53.5.
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