San Diego State vs New Mexico Odds, Predictions

San Diego State vs New Mexico Odds

San Diego State will travel to New Mexico on Friday night for its third straight win. The Lobos, meanwhile, are aiming for their third win of the season as they haven’t won a game since beating UTEP in September.

San Diego State struggled in its last game, falling 14 behind San Jose State in the first quarter. However, the Aztecs made a big comeback, recording 43 points and 425 yards in a 43-27 win.

A key component to San Diego State’s recent success — particularly against San Jose State — is run defense. The Aztecs made it a point to keep teams under 100 yards, and the Spartans only got to 28 yards on the ground.

Can they also keep the lobos under 100? More importantly, can they cover the two touchdown spread?

Jalen Mayden did everything for the Aztecs against San Jose State.

The quarterback completed 17 of 22 passes for 268 yards. He threw an interception, but he also threw for three touchdowns and pinned for 61 yards on the ground. His performance earned him Mountain West Offensive Player of the Week honors.

Mayden has been near-perfect since taking over as the starting gun. He won 4-1 (3-2 against the spread) while piling up 1,253 yards and eight touchdowns.

His best quality is his double threat ability, especially when working alongside the Aztec’s talented running backs.

Three different running backs have rushed for more than 200 yards for the Aztecs this season. Senior Jordan Byrd leads with 415 yards and 10 touchdowns.

The Aztecs’ defense shouldn’t have much trouble stopping a Lobos team that’s averaging just 14.7 points and 240.6 yards per game.

San Diego State is one of the best in the country when it comes to finishing drives on defense, ranking 21st. The Aztecs are also in the top 40 when it comes to stopping the onslaught, which the Lobos often do, ranking 16th nationally in onslaught rate.

There aren’t many positives when it comes to this Lobos team, but there is one thing that could help them hold their own against the Aztecs – their passing defense.

The Lobos are ranked 42nd in defensive pass success and have been solid when it comes to getting stops in the red zone.

The Lobos rank fourth among Mountain West teams in passing defense, holding opponents to just 192.1 passing yards per game. If they’re going to have a chance to stay close against the Aztecs, it’s going to be to stop the passing game.

Matchup Analysis between San Diego State and New Mexico

Toggle the dropdown menus below to hide or show how San Diego State and New Mexico statistically match:

San Diego State Offense vs. New Mexico Defense

New Mexico Offense vs. San Diego State Defense

Game pace / Miscellaneous
PFF tackle 121 99
PFF cover 33 24
SP+ special teams 16 97
seconds per game 29.5 (120) 30.5 (128)
rush rate 61.3% (16) 64.8% (8)
Data from (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

San Diego State vs New Mexico betting tip

Both teams are in the top 20 when it comes to rush rate. They are also both outside the top 115 when it comes to seconds per game. However, that total seems a bit too low to bet on the under in this matchup.

Despite their problems so far this season, I think the Lobos will benefit greatly from the slow pace of this game.

Defend New Mexico to keep it reasonably close as there may not be enough goals for San Diego State to pull away. I would recommend the Lobos at +14 or better and wouldn’t put them under a two touchdown spread.

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